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Newsflash
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LONDON – Goldessential.com – Jul 4 – 8.14GMT
Please note that our offices will be closed on Friday in the observance of the U.S. Independence Day Holiday.
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Newsflash
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| | June 27 | July 3 | Difference | | SPDR | 20.197.679 | 21.173.635 | 975.956 | | LYXOR | 3.684.516 | 3.724.271 | 39.755 | | Ishares | 1.968.584 | 1.967.792 | -792 | | ETF | 1.263.276,355 | 1.507.747,915 | 244.472 | | NG | 903.047 | 902.988 | -59 | | CFOC | 830.585 | 830.585 | | | GOLD | 349.209 | 349.186 | -23 | | CGT | 151.969 | 151.969 | | | | | | | | TOTAL * | 29.348.865 | 30.608.174 | 1.259.309 | | KILO | 912.852 | 952.021 | 39.169 | | | | | | | * In troy ounces | | | |
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Market Commentaries
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LONDON – Goldessential.com – Jul 3 – 10.17GMT
Spot gold was slightly lower in European trading on Thursday, due to profit taking ahead of a slew of crucial macro-economic data in both the U.S. and the Euro-zone that could sent the Euro to new record highs. The yellow metal was however underpinned by fresh record highs in oil prices above $145.00 a barrel.
At 10.00GMT, spot gold was quoted $940.20 an ounce, off its late Wednesday’s $945.30 an ounce level.
At the same time, a barrel of Light Sweet Crude for August delivery was quoted $145.32 a barrel, a few cents below a record high of $145.44 it hit earlier today.
The EUR/USD pair was quoted 1.5876 at 10.03GMT, nearly unchanged from late in NY on Thursday, as volatility and activity slowed ahead of an ECB rate statement at 11.45GMT.
A 25 bps hike to 4.25 pct is fully priced in, although market participants remain cautiously in a wait and see mode for the accompanied statement at 12.30GMT by ECB President Trichet, in which the central banker may shed new light on its monetary policy and its assessment of the tenability of current inflation levels.
Earlier in the week, data showed inflation in the Euro-zone had risen to 4.00 pct.
Investors will also focus on U.S. Payrolls data at 12.30GMT, the second most important U.S. economic indicator.
The release comes one day earlier, as financial markets in the U.S. are closed on Friday in the observance of the 4th of July Holiday.
Many however brace themselve for a worse than expected report, as Yesterday’s Payrolls precursor, the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Indicator, showed an unexpected 79,000 jobs went lost in June.
Analysts predict at 60,000 decline in the official Payrolls report, in comparison to a decline of 49,000 last month.
Both releases could drive the U.S. dollar to a break to either side, with some traders betting on a move below the 1.60 figure later today.
Although such scenario remains unpredictable, a decisive move in the U.S. greenback is likely to guide oil and gold and could spark extreme volatility at times of release.
The yellow metal is still seen facing strong resistance ahead of the $945-$950 band, one European trader said. “Prices already probed the $945 level three times over the last three sessions, but failed so far”, he added.
A break of the $950 an ounce level would likely provide the metal with decent stamina to extend its upside momentum, cautiously putting the focus back on $1,000 an ounce prices.
Reporting by Carl Johansson; contact:
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Last Updated ( Thursday, 03 July 2008 )
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Newsflash
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LONDON – Goldessential.com – Jul 3 – 9.50GMT
The New York Mercantile Exchange Inc.'s COMEX metals division will increase the minimum deposit for gold futures by 15 percent, effective at the close of business today.
The margin requirement on gold futures will rise to $3,750 per contract from $3,250 for clearing and non-clearing exchange members, the NYMEX said on Wednesday in a statement on its web site.
Margins for customers will rise to $5,063 from $4,388. The new margins, which represent cash that traders must deposit to do business on the exchange, will take effect after the close of trading tomorrow, Nymex said.
Margins for Asian gold futures will rise to $1,206 from $1,045 for clearing and non-clearing members. Customers will pay $1,628, up from $1,411, the exchange indicated.
Margins for the COMEX miNY gold futures contract will increase to $1,875 from $1,625 for clearing and non-clearing members and to $2,531 from $2,194 for customers, the exchange said.
A contract for 100 ounces of gold was worth $94,650 at the close on Wednesday.
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TOCOM Gold
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| TOCOM | Yen | Close | Prev | Chng | Pct | Vol | | AUG8 | YEN | 3223 | 3217 | 6 | 0,2% | 220 | | OCT8 | YEN | 3226 | 3216 | 10 | 0,3% | 167 | | DEC8 | YEN | 3231 | 3221 | 10 | 0,3% | 1761 | | FEB9 | YEN | 3236 | 3227 | 9 | 0,3% | 4209 | | APR9 | YEN | 3245 | 3233 | 12 | 0,4% | 8439 | | JUN9 | YEN | 3247 | 3240 | 7 | 0,2% | 35524 | | | | | | Total | 50320 |
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Market Commentaries
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LONDON – Goldessential.com – Jul 3 – 8.00GMT
The view of a German research note suggests that if the ECB and Today's Payrolls (Normal Release on Friday Coincides with the 4th of July holiday) do not send the Euro to 1.60 then oil may. The report claims that an oil price of $150 will drive spot to 1.60 in a very short timeframe. However, we are of the opinion that if an ECB hike and a weak Payrolls report fails to break the 1.60 mark than nothing will.
In the early London session on Thu, there is some talk of coordinated intervention should EUR/USD toy with the 1.60"s, this speculation has been sparked by the timely tour of Europe by US Treasury Secretary Paulson.
Sizable options are seen into 1.60, and as a result protection flows will be seen on approach, but EUR/USD is yet to trade in the 1.59"s so bulls must remain mindful of the scenario at hand - rather than get ahead of themselves.
Elsewhere, there is talk of the risk for a 50bp ECB move. Given the ECB has continually talked of a "one-off" hike economists suggest any such single hike would need to be far greater than the 25bps currently priced in. ECB speakers have always talked of a 25bps move as a possibility but given the 4.0% Euro Zone inflation level even a more aggressive move may struggle to cut CPI in half (back to the 2.0% central bank target rate).
Technically; support is at 1.5840. A push below this level would open for negative momentum to extend to 1.5780/20. Only below 1.5630 risks a reversal. Resistance ahead of 1.5895 (intraday high), the big figure, 1.5910, 1.60 and ultimately 1.6020 (All time high) and 1.6035.
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Last Updated ( Thursday, 03 July 2008 )
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Newsflash
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LONDON – Goldessential.com – Jul 3 – 7.23GMT
Hong Kong is set to relaunch trading in gold futures from October 20th, in order to fulfill the increased demand for the precious metal, the operator of the city's stock market said early on Thursday.
The decision by the Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing comes in the aftermath of a strong rise in the metal's price and significant slide in stock markets. Investors generally buy gold as a store of value in troubled times.
'Potential market participants include both individuals and institutional, bullion dealers, banks and corporations involved in the gold market', the statement added.
The trading day will start from 8:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. (0030 GMT to 0900 GMT), the statement said.
China, the world's third largest gold consumer, launched gold futures trading in Shanghai back in January of this year.
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Newsflash
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LONDON – Goldessential.com – Jul 3 – 6.00GMT
Spot gold opens in Europe on Thursday at 6.00GMT at $943.20/944.20 an ounce, up 2.9$ or 0.3 pct from Wednesday's Europe opening. The metal opened down $2.10 or 0.2 pct from Wednesday's NY close of $945.30. |
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Research
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LONDON – Goldessential.com – July 2 – 12.55GMT
Spot gold quoted at $936.00 an ounce at 12.55GMT
Intraday charts:
Spot gold is seen bullish on the hourly intraday charts above $914 an ounce, albeit capped by key resistance near $944 an ounce.
A break above the $944 an ounce would lift gold into the $944-$950 an ounce resistance band, which needs to be cleared in order to convince an extension of upside momentum towards $1,000 is in place.
Intermediate resistance is however seen ahead of $940.
To the downside, initial support is expected at $935 an ounce, below enables for consolidation a wider $920-935 an ounce band. Below $920 opens for a test of the $916-$914 an ounce support level, below which downside momentum may accelerate towards $900 an ounce.
Daily studies suggest decent support around $882 an ounce, and a mildly overbought condition.
Image 1: Spot Gold, Continuous hourly charts, GMT
Click here for an enlarged version of the chart.
Support-Resistance Overview:
$850, $852, $856, $860, $862-$863, $870, $873, $875-$876, $880, $882 (support on the dailies), $885, $888, $890 (key s/t support), $892, $895, $898, $900 (key s/t support), $904,$907, $909-$910, $912, $914-$916, $919-$920, $923, $927, $930, $933, $935, $940, $944 (key resistance), $950 (key resistance), $952 |
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Last Updated ( Wednesday, 02 July 2008 )
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Newsflash
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LONDON – Goldessential.com – Jul 2 – 6.02GMT
Spot gold opens in Europe on Wednesday at 6.00GMT at $940.30/941.30 an ounce, up 16.6$ or 1.8 pct from Tuesday's Europe opening. The metal opened up $0.60 or 0.1 pct from Tuesday's NY close of $939.70 |
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Last Updated ( Wednesday, 02 July 2008 )
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Newsflash
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LONDON – Goldessential.com – Jul 1 – 13.24GMT
EUR/USD at 1.5798 at 13.25GMT,
EUR/USD biased to the upside, with 1.58 and 1.5845/65 resistance capping, risking a top formation. A clear break of 1.5865 would reinstall 1.6020 as short-term focus, even 1.6325 before reversal.
A failure of to overcome 1.5800 could spark a run back to 1.5750. Below targets 1.5650 and 1.5565, risking a new bearish pattern. Below 1.5500 aims for 1.5360, then 1.4695. |
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